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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sun 16 Mar 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

54%

Guimaraes

1.85

27%

Draw

3.70

19%

Estrela

5.31

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.4%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

2 – 0

11.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.45

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.17

0.73

Estrela xG

54%
27%
19%
GuimaraesDrawEstrela

1.85

54%

Home win

3.70

27%

Draw

5.31

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

64%

Over 1.5

1.56

36%

Under 1.5

2.78

37%

Over 2.5

2.70

63%

Under 2.5

1.59

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

40%

BTTS Yes

2.52

60%

BTTS No

1.66

Clean Sheet

48%

Guimaraes

2.08

24%

Estrela

4.24

Win to Nil

26%

Guimaraes

3.83

4%

Estrela

22.52

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.4 8.3 3.0 0.7 0.1
1 16.4 12.0 4.4 1.1 0.2
2 11.9 8.7 3.2 0.8 0.1
3 5.7 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1
4 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.1
5 0.6 0.4 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.445
λ Away (xG) 0.730
Total xG 2.175
League avg home goals 1.345
League avg away goals 1.118
Guimaraes attack strength 1.137
Guimaraes defence strength 0.945
Estrela attack strength 0.692
Estrela defence strength 0.945
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 59