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Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Estoril 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Estoril 3-2 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.56 xG and Estoril 1.28 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Guimaraes beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Estoril attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 44% | Draw 25% | Estoril 31%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 49%, Estoril 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Estoril's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.54 PPG, Estoril 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights