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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 2

Kick-off

Sat 16 Aug 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

44%

Guimaraes

2.28

25%

Draw

4.04

31%

Estoril

3.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.7%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.1%

Home win

2 – 1

9.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.56

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.84

1.28

Estoril xG

44%
25%
31%
GuimaraesDrawEstoril

2.28

44%

Home win

4.04

25%

Draw

3.19

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.33

Clean Sheet

28%

Guimaraes

3.61

21%

Estoril

4.76

Win to Nil

12%

Guimaraes

8.23

7%

Estoril

15.19

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.8 7.5 4.8 2.0 0.7 0.2
1 9.1 11.7 7.5 3.2 1.0 0.3
2 7.1 9.1 5.8 2.5 0.8 0.2
3 3.7 4.7 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2
5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.561
λ Away (xG) 1.283
Total xG 2.844
League avg home goals 1.365
League avg away goals 1.154
Guimaraes attack strength 1.065
Guimaraes defence strength 0.980
Estoril attack strength 1.135
Estoril defence strength 1.074
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 35 / 35