Vitória SC 2-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitória SC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitória SC vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Vitória SC welcome Chaves to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Kick-off is set for Monday 30 January 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitória SC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vitória SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitória SC at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Vitória SC are significantly better at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chaves stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Chaves have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Vitória SC) versus 1.40 (Chaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vitória SC, 0 for Chaves and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Vitória SC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Vitória SC in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Chaves in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitória SC 32% versus Chaves 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vitória SC 42% | Chaves 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 1.24 xG and Chaves 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 0.840 / defence 0.892 | Chaves attack 0.873 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.009. Data: 51 Vitória SC games / 17 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 47% | Draw 30% | Chaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Chaves 4.17. Vitória SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitória SC at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitória SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitória SC 20% | Chaves 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jan 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 47% | Draw 30% | Chaves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Vitória SC 1.24 / Chaves 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 0.840 / def 0.892 | Chaves attack 0.873 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Chaves xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitória SC vs Chaves kick off?
Vitória SC vs Chaves kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 30 January 2023 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Chaves?
Vitória SC 2 - 1 Chaves.
Where is Vitória SC vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Chaves part of?
Vitória SC vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 47% chance of winning, Chaves a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Vitória SC and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Vitória SC vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Chaves?
Record (1 meetings): Vitória SC 1W | Draws 0 | Chaves 0W.
What form are Vitória SC and Chaves in?
Vitória SC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Chaves (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitória SC's attack at 0.84x the league average against Chaves's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Vitória SC's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.38
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
2.03
0.79
Chaves xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.79 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Vitória SC have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 8W 4D 7L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vitória SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves's form line: 6W 7D 6L from 19 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitória SC on 1.47 PPG, Chaves on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vitória SC have posted 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Vitória SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chaves have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitória SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitória SC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 0.95 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitória SC and Chaves in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Chaves have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitória SC at home or Chaves away?
Vitória SC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitória SC at home: 2.00 PPG; Chaves away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Vitória SC or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Chaves in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vitória SC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Vitória SC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitória SC's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Vitória SC
0
Draws
0
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitória SC have won 4, Chaves have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2024, when Chaves 1-2 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Vitória SC and Chaves?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vitória SC 20% BTTS, Chaves 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Vitória SC and 40% for Chaves.
On the defensive side: Vitória SC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Vitória SC have failed to score in 40% of games; Chaves in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitória SC play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Vitória SC's recent matches and 40% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitória SC vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Vitória SC's recent games and 40% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitória SC and Chaves tend to score early?
Vitória SC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Chaves in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitória SC edge out Chaves 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat Chaves 2-1 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 1.24 xG and Chaves 0.79 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against Chaves attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 47% | Draw 30% | Chaves 24%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 42%, Chaves 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Chaves's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitória SC 1.47 PPG, Chaves 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitória SC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.