Arouca 0-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Benfica (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Arouca face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 31 January 2023, 21:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Arouca — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's home record at Estádio Municipal de Arouca: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Arouca's 30% rate and Benfica's 10% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Arouca.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Benfica winning.
It is worth noting that Benfica have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Arouca trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Benfica trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 51% versus Benfica 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 49% | Benfica 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.171 / defence 0.959 | Benfica attack 1.365 / defence 0.698. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.007. Benfica's defence strength of 0.698 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Arouca games / 52 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 32% | Draw 27% | Benfica 41%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Benfica 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 30% | Benfica 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 32% | Draw 27% | Benfica 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Arouca 1.14 / Benfica 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.171 / def 0.959 | Benfica attack 1.365 / def 0.698 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Benfica (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Benfica xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Benfica kick off?
Arouca vs Benfica kicked off at 21:15 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Arouca 0 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Arouca vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Benfica part of?
Arouca vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 32% chance of winning, Benfica a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Arouca and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
Record (3 meetings): Arouca 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 3W.
What form are Arouca and Benfica in?
Arouca (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arouca's attack at 1.17x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.69
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.46
1.32
Benfica xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Arouca and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Arouca and 1.32 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 14W 15D 22L from 51 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 37W 7D 7L across 51 games — 2.31 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 10W 5D 10L from 25 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 19W 3D 3L across 25 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.37 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Benfica in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 14W 15D 22L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while Benfica have gone 37W 7D 7L in their last 51 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.40 PPG; Benfica away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Arouca or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Benfica in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Benfica won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arouca's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Arouca
1
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 0, Benfica have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 44%, Benfica 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Arouca) and 52% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 60%; Arouca have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Arouca's recent matches and 36% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Arouca's recent games and 52% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Benfica tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Benfica in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Arouca 0-3 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.32 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against Benfica attack 1.36 / defence 0.70, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 32% | Draw 27% | Benfica 41%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 49%, Benfica 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.