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Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Casa Pia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Casa Pia 1-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.96 xG and Casa Pia 1.39 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guimaraes fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Casa Pia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against Casa Pia attack 1.18 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 50% | Draw 24% | Casa Pia 26%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 51%, Casa Pia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Casa Pia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.67 PPG, Casa Pia 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights