Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sat 1 Mar 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

50%

Guimaraes

2.01

24%

Draw

4.21

26%

Casa Pia

3.78

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

9.6%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.4%

Home win

1 – 0

6.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.96

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

3.35

1.39

Casa Pia xG

50%
24%
26%
GuimaraesDrawCasa Pia

2.01

50%

Home win

4.21

24%

Draw

3.78

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

65%

Over 2.5

1.54

35%

Under 2.5

2.86

43%

Over 3.5

2.33

57%

Under 3.5

1.75

25%

Over 4.5

4.00

75%

Under 4.5

1.33

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

65%

BTTS Yes

1.53

35%

BTTS No

2.90

Clean Sheet

25%

Guimaraes

4.03

14%

Casa Pia

7.09

Win to Nil

12%

Guimaraes

8.09

4%

Casa Pia

26.80

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.5 4.9 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.2
1 6.9 9.6 6.7 3.1 1.1 0.3
2 6.7 9.4 6.5 3.0 1.1 0.3
3 4.4 6.1 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2
4 2.1 3.0 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.958
λ Away (xG) 1.394
Total xG 3.352
League avg home goals 1.354
League avg away goals 1.151
Guimaraes attack strength 1.208
Guimaraes defence strength 1.025
Casa Pia attack strength 1.181
Casa Pia defence strength 1.197
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 57 / 57