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Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Guimaraes 0-3 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.45 xG and Benfica 1.47 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Guimaraes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.24 / defence 0.82 against Benfica attack 1.48 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 37% | Draw 25% | Benfica 38%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 49%, Benfica 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Benfica's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.76. That form edge translated into the three points. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights