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Dominant Guimaraes run riot with a 4-0 hammering of AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat AVS 4-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.84 xG and AVS 1.11 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Guimaraes beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AVS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against AVS attack 0.78 / defence 1.40, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 53% | Draw 25% | AVS 22%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 44%, AVS 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

AVS's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. AVS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights