🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Guimaraes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat AVS 2-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 2.11 xG and AVS 1.05 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AVS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.29 / defence 1.24 against AVS attack 0.73 / defence 1.17, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 61% | Draw 21% | AVS 18%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 57%, AVS 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

AVS's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.38 PPG, AVS 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights