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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Guimaraes and Arouca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 4, as Guimaraes and Arouca drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 2.37 xG and Arouca 1.11 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Guimaraes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.17 / defence 1.03 against Arouca attack 0.88 / defence 1.41, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 65% | Draw 18% | Arouca 16%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 49%, Arouca 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Arouca's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights