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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Sat 30 Aug 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

65%

Guimaraes

1.53

18%

Draw

5.43

16%

Arouca

6.11

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

8.6%

Home win

1 – 1

8.1%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.37

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

3.48

1.11

Arouca xG

65%
18%
16%
GuimaraesDrawArouca

1.53

65%

Home win

5.43

18%

Draw

6.11

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

86%

Over 1.5

1.16

14%

Under 1.5

7.14

68%

Over 2.5

1.47

32%

Under 2.5

3.12

46%

Over 3.5

2.17

54%

Under 3.5

1.85

27%

Over 4.5

3.70

73%

Under 4.5

1.37

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

61%

BTTS Yes

1.64

39%

BTTS No

2.55

Clean Sheet

33%

Guimaraes

3.04

9%

Arouca

10.65

Win to Nil

21%

Guimaraes

4.66

2%

Arouca

65.05

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.1 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2
1 7.3 8.1 4.5 1.7 0.5 0.1
2 8.6 9.6 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1
3 6.8 7.6 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.1
4 4.0 4.5 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 1.9 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.366
λ Away (xG) 1.112
Total xG 3.478
League avg home goals 1.434
League avg away goals 1.226
Guimaraes attack strength 1.173
Guimaraes defence strength 1.033
Arouca attack strength 0.878
Arouca defence strength 1.406
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 37 / 37