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Stalemate at GIL Vicente's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente and Sporting CP finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.34 xG and Sporting CP 2.04 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sporting CP landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Sporting CP attack 1.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 25% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 54%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 54%, Sporting CP 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sporting CP's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights