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Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Santa Clara 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Santa Clara 1-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.32 xG and Santa Clara 0.82 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.02 / defence 0.71 against Santa Clara attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 46% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 22%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 40%, Santa Clara 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Santa Clara's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.23 PPG, Santa Clara 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights