GIL Vicente 1-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to take on GIL Vicente. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 November 2025, 20:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, GIL Vicente have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this season.
Santa Clara — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Santa Clara have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Santa Clara have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for GIL Vicente.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Santa Clara winning.
It is worth noting that Santa Clara have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 42% versus Santa Clara 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (GIL Vicente 40% | Santa Clara 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.32 xG and Santa Clara 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.025 / defence 0.712 | Santa Clara attack 0.880 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.318. GIL Vicente's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 GIL Vicente games / 43 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 46% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 22%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Santa Clara 4.55. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Santa Clara lead the H2H ledger, but GIL Vicente carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 10% | Santa Clara 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 20:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 46% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG GIL Vicente 1.32 / Santa Clara 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.025 / def 0.712 | Santa Clara attack 0.880 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Santa Clara xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara kicked off at 20:45 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
GIL Vicente 1 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara part of?
GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 46% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both GIL Vicente and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara?
Record (6 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 4W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Santa Clara in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Santa Clara (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.02x the league average against Santa Clara's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
46%
2.15
32%
3.14
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.14
0.82
Santa Clara xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
6%
17.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.82 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIL Vicente come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 11D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.58 PPG from 43 outings (20W 8D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIL Vicente on 1.23 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIL Vicente's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.02 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 14W 11D 18L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 20W 8D 15L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Santa Clara away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.38 PPG; Santa Clara away: 1.38 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
GIL Vicente
1
Draws
5
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 2, Santa Clara have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Santa Clara 1-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 38%, Santa Clara 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for GIL Vicente and 33% for Santa Clara.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 38% of games; Santa Clara in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 48% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 33% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Santa Clara tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Santa Clara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Santa Clara 1-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.32 xG and Santa Clara 0.82 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.02 / defence 0.71 against Santa Clara attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 46% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 22%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 40%, Santa Clara 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Santa Clara's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.23 PPG, Santa Clara 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.