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Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santa Clara beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.12 xG and Santa Clara 0.88 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Santa Clara attack 0.77 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 41% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 28%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Santa Clara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 44%, Santa Clara 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Santa Clara's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights