GIL Vicente vs Nacional – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Nacional 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Nacional 2-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.58 xG and Nacional 0.61 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Nacional attack 0.53 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 61% | Draw 25% | Nacional 14%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 64%, Nacional 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Nacional's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 0.91 PPG, Nacional 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights