GIL Vicente vs Nacional – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.07) and Nacional's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nacional's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.03
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.19
0.61
Nacional xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
54%
1.83
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
3%
34.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Nacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.61 for Nacional, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.