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Prediction vindicated as Moreirense edge out GIL Vicente 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.19 xG and Moreirense 1.21 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.77 / defence 1.13 against Moreirense attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 28% | Moreirense 37%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 49%, Moreirense 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Moreirense's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights