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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Porto cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIL Vicente.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat GIL Vicente 0-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.12 xG and FC Porto 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Porto outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against FC Porto attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 34% | Draw 28% | FC Porto 38%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 43%, FC Porto 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Porto's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Porto (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights