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GIL Vicente cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Porto.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat FC Porto 3-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.20 xG and FC Porto 1.28 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. GIL Vicente beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.94 / defence 0.87 against FC Porto attack 1.24 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 34% | Draw 29% | FC Porto 38%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 51%, FC Porto 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

FC Porto's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with GIL Vicente winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. FC Porto (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights