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Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Farense 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Farense 1-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 0.89 xG and Farense 1.27 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Farense landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against Farense attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 26% | Draw 29% | Farense 45%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Farense 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Farense's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.02 PPG, Farense 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights