GIL Vicente 0-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Famalicao meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Monday 22 August 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
GIL Vicente (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos than their overall form suggests.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.20 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIL Vicente lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus Famalicao 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 50% | Famalicao 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.43 xG and Famalicao 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.980 / defence 0.889 | Famalicao attack 0.903 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.035. Data: 36 GIL Vicente games / 36 Famalicao games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 51% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 22%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Famalicao 4.55. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 50% | Famalicao 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 51% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG GIL Vicente 1.43 / Famalicao 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.980 / def 0.889 | Famalicao attack 0.903 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Famalicao xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Famalicao kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
GIL Vicente 0 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao part of?
GIL Vicente vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 51% chance of winning, Famalicao a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both GIL Vicente and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
Record (2 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Famalicao in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.98x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.90x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.71
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.26
0.83
Famalicao xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
5%
19.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.83 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 14W 12D 10L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Famalicao's form line: 9W 12D 15L from 36 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, GIL Vicente are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Famalicao.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L).
On the road, Famalicao have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.25 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Early Season
Famalicao
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Famalicao in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 9W 12D 15L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Famalicao away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.50 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.94 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Famalicao in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 1 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
4
Draws
3
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, Famalicao have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 5-0 Famalicao.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 44%, Famalicao 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GIL Vicente) and 56% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Famalicao in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 56% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 56% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Famalicao tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at GIL Vicente's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente and Famalicao finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.43 xG and Famalicao 0.83 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Famalicao landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Famalicao attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 51% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 22%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 50%, Famalicao 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.