Benfica 3-2 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Pacos Ferreira travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 30 August 2022, 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Pacos Ferreira have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Pacos Ferreira have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Benfica, 0 for Pacos Ferreira and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Benfica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Pacos Ferreira trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 54% versus Pacos Ferreira 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 60% | Pacos Ferreira 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.71 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.314 / defence 0.840 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.789 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.176. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Benfica games / 37 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 60% | Draw 24% | Pacos Ferreira 17%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Pacos Ferreira 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 60% | Pacos Ferreira 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 60% | Draw 24% | Pacos Ferreira 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Benfica 1.71 / Pacos Ferreira 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.314 / def 0.840 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.789 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Benfica (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Pacos Ferreira xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 20:15 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira?
Benfica 3 - 2 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 60% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Benfica and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (2 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 0 | Pacos Ferreira 0W.
What form are Benfica and Pacos Ferreira in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.31) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacos Ferreira's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
60%
1.68
24%
4.24
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.49
0.78
Pacos Ferreira xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
3%
33.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Benfica and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Benfica and 0.78 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 37 games, going 26W 5D 6L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 1.03 PPG from 37 outings (9W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 11W 3D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacos Ferreira have taken 0.94 points per game from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.78 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Pacos Ferreira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 26W 5D 6L in their last 37 games (2.24 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 9W 11D 17L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Benfica's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.00 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Benfica or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Benfica's record when hosting Pacos Ferreira specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 0-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Pacos Ferreira?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 61%, Pacos Ferreira 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Benfica) and 22% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira in 33%; Pacos Ferreira in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Benfica's recent matches and 28% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Benfica's recent games and 22% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Pacos Ferreira 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Pacos Ferreira 3-2 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.71 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.78 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pacos Ferreira outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.31 / defence 0.84 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 60% | Draw 24% | Pacos Ferreira 17%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 60%, Pacos Ferreira 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.