Casa Pia 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's home record at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Casa Pia's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of GIL Vicente's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to GIL Vicente, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that GIL Vicente have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 50% versus GIL Vicente 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 45% | GIL Vicente 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.75 xG and GIL Vicente 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 1.071 / defence 0.870 | GIL Vicente attack 0.711 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.176. GIL Vicente bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Casa Pia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Casa Pia games / 56 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 61% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 15%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | GIL Vicente 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Casa Pia (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
GIL Vicente lead the H2H ledger, but Casa Pia carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Casa Pia 70% | GIL Vicente 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 61% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Casa Pia 1.75 / GIL Vicente 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 1.071 / def 0.870 | GIL Vicente attack 0.711 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.73
GIL Vicente xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Casa Pia 1 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente part of?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 61% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Casa Pia and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
Record (5 meetings): Casa Pia 0W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 3W.
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Casa Pia's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.71x) against Casa Pia's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.19
15%
6.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.48
0.73
GIL Vicente xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
6.82
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
3%
39.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.73 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 19W 14D 23L from 56 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 26L across 56 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.04 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 8W 9D 11L from 28 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 4W 5D 19L across 28 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.16 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 19W 14D 23L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 14W 16D 26L in their last 56 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or GIL Vicente away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.18 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
5
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
From 9 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 46%, GIL Vicente 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Casa Pia) and 54% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 39% of games; GIL Vicente in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 46% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Casa Pia's recent games and 54% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Casa Pia edge out GIL Vicente 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.75 xG and GIL Vicente 0.73 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against GIL Vicente attack 0.71 / defence 1.21, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 61% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 15%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 45%, GIL Vicente 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.27 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.