GIL Vicente vs Estoril – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estoril make the trip to to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Estoril have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Estoril have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward GIL Vicente. A 1.30 PPG lead over Estoril (1.50 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: GIL Vicente 3W, Estoril 4W, 3D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Estoril winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 43% versus Estoril 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 46% | Estoril 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.19 xG and Estoril 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.726 / defence 0.739 | Estoril attack 0.723 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.315. GIL Vicente's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estoril bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. GIL Vicente's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 GIL Vicente games / 44 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 48% | Draw 31% | Estoril 22%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Estoril 4.55. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Estoril's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 30% | Estoril 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 48% | Draw 31% | Estoril 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG GIL Vicente 1.19 / Estoril 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.726 / def 0.739 | Estoril attack 0.723 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Estoril xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Estoril kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Estoril is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Estoril part of?
GIL Vicente vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 48% chance of winning, Estoril a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both GIL Vicente and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
Record (10 meetings): GIL Vicente 3W | Draws 3 | Estoril 4W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Estoril in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Estoril (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.73x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.72x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.27
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
1.89
0.70
Estoril xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.70 for Estoril, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 17W 14D 13L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril's form line: 10W 11D 23L from 44 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, GIL Vicente are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estoril.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 4W 4D 14L from 22 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.34 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Estoril in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 17W 14D 13L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while Estoril have gone 10W 11D 23L in their last 44 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Estoril away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.73 PPG; Estoril away: 0.73 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Estoril in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
4
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, Estoril have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Estoril 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 41%, Estoril 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (GIL Vicente) and 64% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Estoril in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 46% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 64% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Estoril tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Estoril in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.