GIL Vicente vs Estoril – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estoril make the trip to to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Estoril have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Estoril have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward GIL Vicente. A 1.20 PPG lead over Estoril (1.50 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: GIL Vicente 3W, Estoril 4W, 3D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Estoril winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 43% versus Estoril 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 49% | Estoril 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.61 xG and Estoril 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.090 / defence 0.801 | Estoril attack 0.847 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.260. Data: 37 GIL Vicente games / 38 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 55% | Draw 25% | Estoril 20%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Estoril 5.00. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 50% | Estoril 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 55% | Draw 25% | Estoril 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG GIL Vicente 1.61 / Estoril 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.090 / def 0.801 | Estoril attack 0.847 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Estoril xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Estoril kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Estoril is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Estoril part of?
GIL Vicente vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 55% chance of winning, Estoril a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both GIL Vicente and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
Record (10 meetings): GIL Vicente 3W | Draws 3 | Estoril 4W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Estoril in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Estoril (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.09x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.85x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.02
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.47
0.85
Estoril xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
25.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.85 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 15W 12D 10L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estoril's form line: 10W 9D 18L from 37 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, GIL Vicente are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estoril.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.49 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Early Season
Estoril
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Estoril in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 15W 12D 10L in their last 37 games (1.54 PPG), while Estoril have gone 10W 9D 18L in their last 37 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Estoril away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.89 PPG; Estoril away: 0.84 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Estoril in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
4
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, Estoril have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Estoril 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 42%, Estoril 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (GIL Vicente) and 63% (Estoril). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Estoril in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 47% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of GIL Vicente's matches and 63% of Estoril's.
Do GIL Vicente and Estoril tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Estoril in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.