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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GIL Vicente cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Estoril 2-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.53 xG and Estoril 1.38 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Estoril landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Estoril attack 1.20 / defence 1.31, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 41% | Draw 25% | Estoril 34%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 38%, Estoril 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Estoril's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.13 PPG, Estoril 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights