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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Estoril defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat GIL Vicente 1-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.81 xG and Estoril 1.22 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against Estoril attack 1.22 / defence 1.22, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 51% | Draw 24% | Estoril 25%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Estoril win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 51%, Estoril 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Estoril's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.09 PPG, Estoril 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights