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Shock result as Benfica defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat GIL Vicente 1-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.26 xG and Benfica 1.23 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.23 / defence 0.82 against Benfica attack 1.26 / defence 0.67, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 28% | Benfica 35%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 44%, Benfica 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Benfica's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights