GIL Vicente 1-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 36%, yet in-form Benfica provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIL Vicente vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIL Vicente host Benfica at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 March 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIL Vicente have posted 7W 2D 1L at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos than their overall form suggests.
Benfica — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 8 victories compared to 1 for GIL Vicente.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Benfica in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 47% versus Benfica 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 44% | Benfica 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.26 xG and Benfica 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.228 / defence 0.823 | Benfica attack 1.261 / defence 0.666. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.185. Benfica's defence strength of 0.666 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 GIL Vicente games / 57 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 28% | Benfica 35%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Benfica 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benfica (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: GIL Vicente 40% | Benfica 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Monday 2 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 28% | Benfica 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG GIL Vicente 1.26 / Benfica 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.228 / def 0.823 | Benfica attack 1.261 / def 0.666 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Benfica xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Benfica kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Benfica kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 2 March 2026 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
GIL Vicente 1 - 2 Benfica.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Benfica part of?
GIL Vicente vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 36% chance of winning, Benfica a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both GIL Vicente and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
Record (9 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 0 | Benfica 8W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Benfica in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Benfica (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.23x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.51
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.49
1.23
Benfica xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.23 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 19W 17D 21L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica's form line: 41W 12D 4L from 57 games, 2.37 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIL Vicente.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 19W 6D 3L from 28 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.33 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Benfica in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Benfica have gone 41W 12D 4L in their last 57 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.54 PPG; Benfica away: 2.25 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIL Vicente and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
GIL Vicente
0
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 1, Benfica have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 43%, Benfica 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (GIL Vicente) and 57% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Benfica in 46%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 46% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 57% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Benfica tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Benfica in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Benfica defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat GIL Vicente 1-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.26 xG and Benfica 1.23 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.23 / defence 0.82 against Benfica attack 1.26 / defence 0.67, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 28% | Benfica 35%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 44%, Benfica 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.