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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of GIL Vicente.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat GIL Vicente 0-3 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.12 xG and Benfica 1.43 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Benfica attack 1.25 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Benfica 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Benfica's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights