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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GIL Vicente and Arouca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente and Arouca finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.00 xG and Arouca 1.19 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.69 / defence 0.97 against Arouca attack 1.02 / defence 1.12, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 31% | Draw 29% | Arouca 40%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Arouca 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Arouca's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.03 PPG, Arouca 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights