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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GIL Vicente and Alverca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 26, as GIL Vicente and Alverca drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 2.20 xG and Alverca 0.83 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alverca outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.21 / defence 0.88 against Alverca attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 68% | Draw 20% | Alverca 12%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Alverca 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Alverca's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alverca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights