🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Porto cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tondela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Tondela 2-0 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 2.63 xG and Tondela 0.68 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.27 / defence 0.76 against Tondela attack 0.77 / defence 1.40, drawn from 63/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 79% | Draw 14% | Tondela 7%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 57%, Tondela 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one.

Tondela's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights