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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Porto and Sporting CP share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto and Sporting CP finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.73 xG and Sporting CP 1.30 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.39 / defence 0.67 against Sporting CP attack 1.64 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 47% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 28%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 57%, Sporting CP 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Sporting CP's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 2.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights