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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out SC Braga 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat SC Braga 2-1 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.39 xG and SC Braga 0.90 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.22 / defence 0.65 against SC Braga attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 47% | Draw 31% | SC Braga 23%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 56%, SC Braga 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Braga's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Porto 2.23 PPG, SC Braga 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Porto win broke the near-deadlock. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights