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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 34

Kick-off

Sat 16 May 2026

15:30

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

61%

FC Porto

1.63

23%

Draw

4.32

16%

Santa Clara

6.39

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.4%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

12.6%

Home win

1 – 1

10.8%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.74

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.49

0.75

Santa Clara xG

61%
23%
16%
FC PortoDrawSanta Clara

1.63

61%

Home win

4.32

23%

Draw

6.39

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

43%

BTTS Yes

2.30

57%

BTTS No

1.77

Clean Sheet

47%

FC Porto

2.11

17%

Santa Clara

5.72

Win to Nil

29%

FC Porto

3.45

3%

Santa Clara

36.57

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.3 6.2 2.3 0.6 0.1
1 14.4 10.8 4.0 1.0 0.2
2 12.6 9.4 3.5 0.9 0.2
3 7.3 5.5 2.0 0.5 0.1
4 3.2 2.4 0.9 0.2
5 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.744
λ Away (xG) 0.747
Total xG 2.491
League avg home goals 1.465
League avg away goals 1.152
FC Porto attack strength 1.170
FC Porto defence strength 0.682
Santa Clara attack strength 0.952
Santa Clara defence strength 1.017
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 67 / 67