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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Porto and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 19, as FC Porto and Santa Clara drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 2.14 xG and Santa Clara 0.66 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Porto fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.50 / defence 0.62 against Santa Clara attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 71% | Draw 19% | Santa Clara 10%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 61%, Santa Clara 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.

Santa Clara's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights