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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Nacional 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Nacional 1-0 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.72 xG and Nacional 0.89 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nacional landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.46 / defence 0.76 against Nacional attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 57% | Draw 24% | Nacional 19%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 55%, Nacional 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights