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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sat 13 Sep 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

57%

FC Porto

1.76

24%

Draw

4.21

19%

Nacional

5.18

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.7%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.3%

Draw

2 – 0

10.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.72

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.61

0.89

Nacional xG

57%
24%
19%
FC PortoDrawNacional

1.76

57%

Home win

4.21

24%

Draw

5.18

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.07

52%

BTTS No

1.94

Clean Sheet

41%

FC Porto

2.43

18%

Nacional

5.57

Win to Nil

23%

FC Porto

4.27

3%

Nacional

28.89

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.4 6.6 2.9 0.9 0.2
1 12.7 11.3 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.1
2 10.9 9.7 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 6.2 5.5 2.5 0.7 0.2
4 2.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1
5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.718
λ Away (xG) 0.889
Total xG 2.607
League avg home goals 1.394
League avg away goals 1.208
FC Porto attack strength 1.464
FC Porto defence strength 0.758
Nacional attack strength 0.971
Nacional defence strength 0.841
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 38