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Dominant FC Porto run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Guimaraes 3-0 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.55 xG and Guimaraes 1.08 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Porto beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guimaraes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.17 / defence 0.94 against Guimaraes attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 48% | Draw 27% | Guimaraes 26%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 53%, Guimaraes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Guimaraes's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.59. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights