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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Mon 11 Aug 2025

20:45

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

48%

FC Porto

2.10

27%

Draw

3.76

26%

Guimaraes

3.86

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.2%

Home win

2 – 1

9.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.55

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.63

1.08

Guimaraes xG

48%
27%
26%
FC PortoDrawGuimaraes

2.10

48%

Home win

3.76

27%

Draw

3.86

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.90

47%

BTTS No

2.11

Clean Sheet

34%

FC Porto

2.94

21%

Guimaraes

4.70

Win to Nil

16%

FC Porto

6.20

6%

Guimaraes

18.16

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.2 7.8 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1
1 11.2 12.1 6.5 2.3 0.6 0.1
2 8.7 9.3 5.0 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 4.5 4.8 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.548
λ Away (xG) 1.080
Total xG 2.628
League avg home goals 1.403
League avg away goals 1.175
FC Porto attack strength 1.165
FC Porto defence strength 0.940
Guimaraes attack strength 0.978
Guimaraes defence strength 0.947
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34