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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Porto and Guimaraes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 23, as FC Porto and Guimaraes drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.61 xG and Guimaraes 0.67 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.32 / defence 0.69 against Guimaraes attack 0.84 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 59% | Draw 26% | Guimaraes 14%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 55%, Guimaraes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Guimaraes's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights