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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Mon 24 Feb 2025

20:15

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

59%

FC Porto

1.68

26%

Draw

3.81

14%

Guimaraes

6.96

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.5%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

13.3%

Home win

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.61

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.28

0.67

Guimaraes xG

59%
26%
14%
FC PortoDrawGuimaraes

1.68

59%

Home win

3.81

26%

Draw

6.96

14%

Away win

Goals Markets

66%

Over 1.5

1.52

34%

Under 1.5

2.94

40%

Over 2.5

2.50

60%

Under 2.5

1.67

20%

Over 3.5

5.00

80%

Under 3.5

1.25

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

40%

BTTS Yes

2.52

60%

BTTS No

1.66

Clean Sheet

51%

FC Porto

1.95

20%

Guimaraes

5.01

Win to Nil

31%

FC Porto

3.28

3%

Guimaraes

34.87

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.3 6.8 2.3 0.5 0.1
1 16.5 11.0 3.7 0.8 0.1
2 13.3 8.9 3.0 0.7 0.1
3 7.1 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
4 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.1
5 0.9 0.6 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.611
λ Away (xG) 0.666
Total xG 2.277
League avg home goals 1.364
League avg away goals 1.146
FC Porto attack strength 1.322
FC Porto defence strength 0.687
Guimaraes attack strength 0.845
Guimaraes defence strength 0.893
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 56