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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Famalicao 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Famalicao 2-1 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.74 xG and Famalicao 1.24 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Famalicao attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 49% | Draw 24% | Famalicao 27%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 52%, Famalicao 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Famalicao's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights