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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Fri 18 Apr 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

49%

FC Porto

2.04

24%

Draw

4.24

27%

Famalicao

3.65

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.9%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

1 – 0

8.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.74

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.99

1.24

Famalicao xG

49%
24%
27%
FC PortoDrawFamalicao

2.04

49%

Home win

4.24

24%

Draw

3.65

27%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

57%

Over 2.5

1.75

43%

Under 2.5

2.33

35%

Over 3.5

2.86

65%

Under 3.5

1.54

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.70

41%

BTTS No

2.42

Clean Sheet

29%

FC Porto

3.47

18%

Famalicao

5.70

Win to Nil

14%

FC Porto

7.07

5%

Famalicao

20.84

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.1 6.3 3.9 1.6 0.5 0.1
1 8.8 10.9 6.8 2.8 0.9 0.2
2 7.7 9.5 5.9 2.5 0.8 0.2
3 4.4 5.5 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 1.9 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2
5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.741
λ Away (xG) 1.244
Total xG 2.985
League avg home goals 1.257
League avg away goals 1.191
FC Porto attack strength 1.220
FC Porto defence strength 0.945
Famalicao attack strength 1.105
Famalicao defence strength 1.136
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 63