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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Porto cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Estrela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Estrela 3-1 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.88 xG and Estrela 0.73 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Porto beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.13 / defence 0.62 against Estrela attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 65% | Draw 21% | Estrela 14%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 53%, Estrela 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Estrela's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Estrela (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights