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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 14

Kick-off

Mon 15 Dec 2025

20:45

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

65%

FC Porto

1.54

21%

Draw

4.65

14%

Estrela

7.26

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

13.0%

Home win

1 – 1

10.1%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.88

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.60

0.73

Estrela xG

65%
21%
14%
FC PortoDrawEstrela

1.54

65%

Home win

4.65

21%

Draw

7.26

14%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.28

56%

BTTS No

1.78

Clean Sheet

48%

FC Porto

2.07

15%

Estrela

6.54

Win to Nil

31%

FC Porto

3.20

2%

Estrela

47.46

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.4 5.4 2.0 0.5 0.1
1 13.9 10.1 3.7 0.9 0.2
2 13.0 9.5 3.4 0.8 0.2
3 8.2 5.9 2.2 0.5 0.1
4 3.8 2.8 1.0 0.2
5 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.878
λ Away (xG) 0.727
Total xG 2.605
League avg home goals 1.355
League avg away goals 1.264
FC Porto attack strength 1.129
FC Porto defence strength 0.622
Estrela attack strength 0.925
Estrela defence strength 1.227
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 47 / 47