🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant FC Porto run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Casa Pia 4-0 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.56 xG and Casa Pia 1.02 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Porto beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Casa Pia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.30 / defence 0.84 against Casa Pia attack 1.01 / defence 0.87, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 50% | Draw 25% | Casa Pia 25%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 53%, Casa Pia 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Casa Pia's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights